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🇺🇸 US Government Fiscal Stress Dashboard: 10 Oct 2026

USA's Total Public Debt Outstanding as at 8 Oct 2026: USD 40,305,316,210,829.72 : up 0.156% from 40,242,446,619,209.33 (2 Oct 2026)

USA's population is 342,931,720

Debt held by the public: USD 32.454 trillion

Intra-governmental holdings: USD 7.851 trillion

USA's GDP in Q2/2026 is USD 32,563.030 trillion [Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis]. Most of that (67.5%) is personal consumption expenditure: USD 21.993 trillion.

Total Debt/GDP: 1.238 (Debt is 24% greater than the US economy)

Comparative debt/GDP numbers

Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a country's ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the country borrowing costs and government bond yields.

Institutions' Comments

Institution Current assessment In Brief
BlackRock Fiscal position is a critical market variable; debt servicing and issuance are pushing up term premium. Larry Fink says fiscal discipline is being neglected and the real danger would be declining confidence/foreign Treasury demand. 🟠 Serious warning
J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Massively higher federal deficits and debt” may undermine Treasuries' traditional ability to protect portfolios when equities fall. Baseline is steadily rising debt and borrowing costs; an outright fiscal crisis is a pessimistic scenario, not the base case. 🟠 Structural deterioration
PIMCO US policy is on an “unsustainable trajectory”, but PIMCO explicitly does not expect a sudden-stop fiscal crisis. More likely: periodic volatility as markets repeatedly question fiscal credibility. 🟠 Unsustainable,
not imminent
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Mounting concern from large peacetime deficits, higher real rates and interest costs, but the dollar and unparalleled Treasury-market depth remain enormous advantages. Comprehensive fiscal reform ultimately required. 🟠 Problem manageable
—for now
Capital Group Rising debt contributes to higher Treasury yields, but portfolio managers do not see an imminent crisis. Current yields partly reflect normalization toward stronger nominal growth/inflation conditions. 🟡/🟠 Watch, don't panic

More economic indicators

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Bureau of Economic Analysis

US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision (16 Sep 2026)

Decision: "The FOMC unanimously decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate: pursuing the economic goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported both the unemployment rate, at 4.2%, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in Sep 2026. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.1% to 4.3% since Mar 2026.

Rationale: "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal. The Committee will deliver price stability."FOMC Projections: 16 Sep 2026

USA's total debt outstanding on 7 Oct 2026 is [US Federal Treasury]: $40,284,036,147,367.19 in the form of:

USA's population as at 3 Oct 2026: 342,928,975 [US Census]

Averaging the total debt held by the public over the nation's population estimates the debt per person as USD 117,470 for every member of the public in USA as at 8 Oct 2026.

"Debt to the Penny" is made up of intragovernmental holdings and debt held by the public, including securities issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Total public debt outstanding is composed of:

"Debt to the Penny" is updated at the end of each business day with data from the previous business day. [Source: US Federal Treasury: 26 Sep 2026]

Not included in the figures above: On 9 Sep 2026 Donald Trump promised to pay every adult citizen in the USA a "Dividend" of USD 5,000 if Republicans retain the House and Senate in the Nov 2026 midterm elections.

That would increase USD's debt to USD 32.363 trillion.. Clinton references Trump as saying the "Dividend" would be funded with tariff revenue - and then points out that the Supreme Court has struck down most of Trump's tariffs as illegal."

Trump's offer has been greeted with expressions of incredulity across the US political spectrum as well as outraged accusations of seeking to bribe voters. and comes amid huge concern over the US national debt, which topped USD 40 trillion for the first time in August 2026. [The Guardian: 14 Sep 2026] [Bill Clinton's response: 14 Sep 2026]. Trump has already backed down on the USD 5,000 "Dividend" and is now offering USD 90 payments for the same conditional outcome [Fortune: 3 Oct 2026].

Fortunately, a significant percentage of US voters don't believe they will see a "Dividend". If this remains, the fiscal risk associated with the "Dividend" is reduced.

⏯️ Former President Bill Clinton's reaction to Trump's USD 5,000 dividend.

In Jun 2016 Donald Trump referred to himself as "the King of Debt".

When this statement was made, Trump said that USA was USD 19 trillion in debt.
10 years later, the US Treasury reports that the debt is above USD 40 trillion.

Before moving on, it's important to consider the situation of the current US President: Donald J. Trump. He has had a major loss in his personal court cases, threatening to wipe out a very large component of his assets.

Judge Arthur Engoron's decisions and orders in the New York civil fraud case brought by Attorney General Letitia James against Donald J. Trump, his adult sons, and the Trump Organization include:

1. Liability for Fraud (September 2023)

2. Final Judgment and Penalties (February 2024)

3. Appellate Rulings and Adjustments (August 2025)

The significance of these restrictions and penalties is important in terms of its impact on Trump's chances of success in the mid-term elections. These are also important in terms of (unlikely) approval of Trump's

Fiscal Year 2026 Breakdown

Behind the Numbers: Recent CBO Monthly Budget Reviews:

Fiscal Year 2026 Breakdown:

Long-Term Projections (2026–2036)

USA's Statutory Debt Limit

USA is projected to hit its USD 41.1 trillion statutory debt ceiling by mid-2027.
Problem: USA has to pay interest on that ballooning debt.

Bank of America projects a USD 1.993 trillion deficit in fiscal 2026, with spending hitting USD 7.5 trillion against USD 5.6 trillion in revenue. Debt interest payments now consume USD 1 trillion annually, rivaling the entire defense budget and leaving every other program competing for shrinking dollars. The CBO report for Oct 2026 estimates a USD218 billion rise over the FY2025 estimate because expenditure growth exceeded revenue growth. The estimate will be subject to reconciliation with final Treasury figures.

USA had a $166.8 billion monthly deficit in Aug 2026, adding to an annual deficit that has exceeded the previous fiscal year's total.

The deficit across 11 months of fiscal 2026 was $1.966 trillion. In comparison, the United States ended fiscal 2025 last September with a $1.775 trillion deficit.

Jeremy Horpedahl, an associate professor of economics at the University of Central Arkansas, said the United States has not experienced a budget deficit at this level except during the coronavirus pandemic, when federal spending rose to address healthcare and unemployment needs.

On 3 November 2026 the midterm election will be held. There are several issues relevant to USA's fiscal situation:

On the second issue, key forecast details from Politico coverage include:

About This Dashboard

This US Government Fiscal Stress Dashboard is updated with ChatGPT every weekend.

Our current assessment: 🟠 AMBER — HIGH / deteriorating materially.

Office of Financial Research: 🟠 AMBER — HIGH / deteriorating materially.

We also subscribe to the Office of Financial Research monitors.

United Nations Fiscal Position - USA Arrears

USA is overwhelmingly the central problem in the UN's current liquidity crisis. AP reports today that the UN puts US arrears at about USD 5 billion.

However it recently paid USD 827 million (USD 725 million for the regular budget and USD 102 million for peacekeeping) to the United Nations in September 2026, reducing its outstanding debt but still leaving a deficit of USD 1.312 billion.

The Trump administration has notified Congress that it intends to pay USD 850 million for the following programs:

That would be the largest UN payment made by the current Trump administration. It follows a USD 160 million payment in Feb 2026.

Reuters gives a slightly different framing. It says that in May the UN calculated the US owed more than USD 4 billion: specifically about USD 2.04 billion regular budget + USD 2.2 billion peacekeeping + USD 44 million tribunals. Reuters also notes that Washington disputes the UN's calculation and says the true liability is lower.

The best current headline estimate of USA's commitment is approximately USD 5 billion, while recognising that the precise number depends upon which obligations and arrears are included.

How serious is the UN's overall financial position?

Quite serious. Secretary-General António Guterres has warned of "imminent financial collapse" because member states are not paying assessed contributions. The UN has consequently cut its 2026 budget by 9.2% and moved more than 2,000 jobs out of expensive centres such as New York and Geneva.

The UN's own contribution records show that, as of 11 August 2026, only 128 of the 193 member states had paid their 2026 regular-budget assessments in full.

One striking way of putting the US position in perspective is this:

Institution Current Assessment Status
Black Rock Fiscal position is a critical market variable; debt servicing and issuance are pushing up term premium. Larry Fink says fiscal discipline is being neglected and the real danger would be declining confidence/foreign Treasury demand. 🟠 Serious warning
J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Massively higher federal deficits and debt” may undermine Treasuries' traditional ability to protect portfolios when equities fall. Baseline is steadily rising debt and borrowing costs; an outright fiscal crisis is a pessimistic scenario, not the base case. 🟠 Structural deterioration
PIMCO US policy is on an “unsustainable trajectory”, but PIMCO explicitly does not expect a sudden-stop fiscal crisis. More likely: periodic volatility as markets repeatedly question fiscal credibility. 🟠 Unsustainable, not imminent
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Mounting concern from large peacetime deficits, higher real rates and interest costs, but the dollar and unparalleled Treasury-market depth remain enormous advantages. Comprehensive fiscal reform ultimately required. 🟠 Problem manageable — for now
Capital Group Rising debt contributes to higher Treasury yields, but portfolio managers do not see an imminent crisis. Current yields partly reflect normalization toward stronger nominal growth/inflation conditions. 🟡/🟠 Watch, don't panic

Congressional Budget Office: History of Monthly Budget Reviews

Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals USD 1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to USD 3.1 trillion in 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and increases to 6.7% in 2036. Deficits averaged 3.8% of GDP over the last 50 years.

Debt held by the public rises from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036, well above the previous record of 106% just after World War II.

Outlays are large by historical standards—and growing. They total 23.3% of GDP in 2026, exceeding their 50-year average of 21.2%. After being adjusted for shifts in the timing of certain payments, outlays remain at about that level through 2028 but then grow steadily, boosted by rising spending on mandatory programs and increasing net interest costs. Outlays in 2036 are 24.4% of GDP.

Revenues in 2026 total 17.5% of GDP, surpassing their 50-year average of 17.3%. Revenues stay at or slightly above that 2026 level through 2036, when they total 17.8% of GDP. Over the 2026–2036 period, individual income tax receipts and remittances from the Federal Reserve rise as a percentage of GDP; those increases are offset by declining customs duties receipts as imports, as a percentage of GDP, fall in response to tariffs

Changes in CBO’s Budget Projections Since January 2025

Those amounts include the effects of related changes in the economy and net interest costs

The U.S. Economy [Congressional Budget Office]

Output growth strengthens in calendar year 2026 because of provisions in the 2025 reconciliation act and the rebound in economic activity following the lapse in discretionary appropriations last year. That growth moderates in later years.

The labor market gradually improves in 2026 as output growth strengthens.

Employment growth rebounds as the 2025 reconciliation act’s effects increase overall economic activity. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.6% this year and then declines through 2036.

Inflation, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, slows from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026. Inflation returns to a rate roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2% in 2030 and stabilizes thereafter.

Interest rates declined in 2025 as the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate by 0.75 percentage points. That rate is expected to continue to decline this year and to stabilize thereafter. The interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes rises gradually through 2027 and remains relatively stable in later years.

Net interest cost Approximately USD 1.143 trillion in FY2026 net interest expenditure.

Conclusion Persistent deficits combined with elevated borrowing costs remain the central fiscal concern. Strong Treasury auction demand and relatively low unemployment provide counterbalancing evidence.

References

US political uncertainty/chaos and policies (eg tariff uncertainty, alienation of allies, and US-initiated wars) also have an impact on valuation of stocks, so we're interested in the very unstable performance of US politics and politicians,
especially if when the chickens come home to roost.

It is reported that USA may, in the near term, face a political crisis as Congress proposes impeachment and removal of Donald Trump as President. The 61st presidential election will be held on 7 Nov 2028. The winner of the 2028 presidential election will be sworn into office on 20 Jan 2029.

Eventually, the chickens did come home to roost for Trump in a court house in October 2026:



However, further weakening of the integrity of the US Government, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche signed an order that leaves the IRS “forever barred” from examining President Trump’s prior tax returns. The memo prohibits the IRS from pursuing claims against Trump, his family or his businesses, saying the agency “releases, waives, acquits” its pending action and is “forever barred and precluded” from pursuing claims against the president.

"The United States shall provide the U.S. Department of the Treasury with all necessary forms and documentation to direct a payment of $1,776,000,000 to an account for the sole use by the Anti-Weaponisation Fund ... based on the projected valuation of future (Trump) claimants' claims."

The document comes after the Justice Department and Trump moved to voluntarily dismiss a USD 10 billion lawsuit against the agency for leaking his tax returns. In exchange, the Justice Department created a USD 1.776 billion “anti-weaponization fund” to compensate individuals who allege they’ve been unfairly treated by previous administrations.

In seeking to voluntarily dismiss the case, the parties are sidestepping a federal judge who had asked Trump and the Justice Department to explain whether they were truly adversaries, as required is required to bring a case. The single-page document says the IRS will not be allowed to probe any of Trump’s ”tax returns filed before the effective date” of this settlement agreement for any “presently known or unknown” claims.

“As is customary in settlements, both sides have executed waivers of a variety of claims that were or could have been brought. There would be little point in settling several significant claims if either party could simply turn around and seek to [initiate] more adverse claims that could have been pursued previously,” a Justice Department spokesperson said in a statement. This is only with respect to existing audits, not future.”

"US tax authorities will be barred from pursuing claims against Donald Trump, his eldest sons and the Trump Organisation under an agreement to halt the president’s USD 10 billion (AUD 14 billion) lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service." [The Hill: 19 May 2026]

On 14 Jul 2026 acting Attorney General Todd Blanche issued a supplemental order to drop audits of Trump, his family, related associates, and their businesses pertaining to tax returns they have already filed. According to The New York Times, this supplemental settlement likely eliminated a dispute over a USD 72.9 million tax refund Trump claimed as the host of The Apprentice (2004–2017).

In late Sep 2026 a Judge ruled that Trump's USD 1.776 billion IRS case was a collusive scheme to manipulate the judicial process. [⏯️ Public Scope: Sep 2026]

1 Oct 2026: President Donald Trump has been slapped with 26 new articles of impeachment by a House Democrat, accusing him of abuses of power, violations of his oath of office, and a sweeping range of other alleged misconduct. Representative Steve Cohen, a Tennessee Democrat and senior member of the House Judiciary Committee, introduced the articles on 24 Sep 2026, just 9 days after the House rejected a separate impeachment effort brought by Democratic Representative Al Green of Texas. [⏯️ NewsWeek: 26 Sep 2026]

Judgments/rulings in relation to Trump's business empire:

The situation is currently (Oct 2026):

AUD/USD and Australia

The Australian market has also begun feeling the global bond shock.

The ASX 200 fell 2.1% for the week and Australian government bond yields moved above 5%, with inflation concerns centred particularly on higher energy prices.

The AUD was around USD 0.721 late in the week.

That produces mixed consequences for an Australian investor:

Weekly assessment

These two numbers deserve focus:

But alongside them there's an equally prominent reassuring fact:

That combination captures the situation particularly well. The price America must pay to borrow has become increasingly uncomfortable; its ability to find lenders has not.

That is still 🟠 AMBER, but considerably darker amber than last week.