That is USD 94,392.05 for every single person in USA
Debt held by the public: USD 32.486 trillion
Since 10 Sep 2026
Inter-governmental holdings: USD 7,706 trillion
USA's GDP is 32.486 trillion [Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis]
USA's Debt/GDP: 123% (debt is far greater than the US economy)
On 10 Sep 2026 the total debt outstanding was USD 40.069 trillion
So in the last 16 days USA's total debt has increased by USD 21,081 billion.
Decision: "The FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Rationale: Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."FOMC Projections: 16 Sep 2026
USA's population as at 15 Sep 2026: 342,854,374 [US Census]
Averaging the debt held by the public over the nation's population estimates the debt per person as USD 94,392 for every member of the public in USA
"Debt to the Penny" is made up of intragovernmental holdings and debt held by the public, including securities issued by the U.S. Treasury.
Total public debt outstanding is composed of:
"Debt to the Penny" is updated at the end of each business day with data from the previous business day. [Source: US Federal Treasury: 26 Sep 2026]
Not included in the figures above: On 9 Sep 2026 Donald Trump promised to pay every adult citizen in the USD 5,000 if Republicans retain the House and Senate in the Nov 2026 midterm elections. He called it the "Trump Dividend", but it's nothing more or less than a bribe that USA can't afford. There are 245.3 million US citizens (aged 18 and older) living in USA (about 79% of the total population). Multiplying this out [USD 5,000 x 245,300,000 = USD 1.226 trillion]. That would increase USD's debt to USD 32.363 trillion.
The plan has been greeted with expressions of incredulity across the US political spectrum as well as outraged accusations of seeking to bribe voters. The plan – which would cost more than a trillion dollars – also comes amid huge concern over the US national debt, which topped USD 40 trillion for the first time in August 2026. [The Guardian: 14 Sep 2026] [Bill Clinton's response: 14 Sep 2026]
⏯️ Former President Bill Clinton's reaction to Trump's USD 5,000 dividend.
| In Jun 2016 Donald Trump referred to himself as "the King of Debt". When this statement was made, Trump said that USA was USD 19 trillion in debt. 10 years later, the US Treasury reports that the debt is USD 40 trillion. |
USA is projected to hit its USD 41.1 trillion statutory debt ceiling by mid-2027.
Problem: USA has to pay interest on that ballooning debt.
Bank of America projects a USD 1.9 trillion deficit in fiscal 2026, with spending hitting USD 7.5 trillion against USD 5.6 trillion in revenue. Debt interest payments now consume USD 1 trillion annually, rivaling the entire defense budget and leaving every other program competing for shrinking dollars.
USA had a $166.8 billion monthly deficit in Aug 2026, adding to an annual deficit that has exceeded the previous fiscal year's total.
The deficit across 11 months of fiscal 2026 was $1.966 trillion. In comparison, the United States ended fiscal 2025 last September with a $1.775 trillion deficit.
Jeremy Horpedahl, an associate professor of economics at the University of Central Arkansas, said the United States has not experienced a budget deficit at this level except during the coronavirus pandemic, when federal spending rose to address healthcare and unemployment needs.
This US Government Fiscal Stress Dashboard is updated with ChatGPT every weekend.
Our current assessment: 🟠 AMBER — HIGH / deteriorating materially.
Office of Financial Research: 🟠 AMBER — HIGH / deteriorating materially.
We also subscribe to the Office of Financial Research monitors.
USA is overwhelmingly the central problem in the UN's current liquidity crisis. AP reports today that the UN puts US arrears at about USD 5 billion.
However it recently paid USD 827 million (USD 725 million for the regular budget and USD 102 million for peacekeeping) to the United Nations in September 2026, reducing its outstanding debt but still leaving a deficit of USD 1.312 billion.
The Trump administration has notified Congress that it intends to pay USD 850 million for the following programs:
That would be the largest UN payment made by the current Trump administration. It follows a USD 160 million payment in Feb 2026.
Reuters gives a slightly different framing. It says that in May the UN calculated the US owed more than USD 4 billion: specifically about USD 2.04 billion regular budget + USD 2.2 billion peacekeeping + USD 44 million tribunals. Reuters also notes that Washington disputes the UN's calculation and says the true liability is lower.
The best current headline estimate of USA's commitment is approximately USD 5 billion, while recognising that the precise number depends upon which obligations and arrears are included.
Quite serious. Secretary-General António Guterres has warned of "imminent financial collapse" because member states are not paying assessed contributions. The UN has consequently cut its 2026 budget by 9.2% and moved more than 2,000 jobs out of expensive centres such as New York and Geneva.
The UN's own contribution records show that, as of 11 August 2026, only 128 of the 193 member states had paid their 2026 regular-budget assessments in full.
One striking way of putting the US position in perspective is this:
Deficits are large by historical standards. The deficit totals USD 1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and grows to USD 3.1 trillion in 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and increases to 6.7% in 2036. Deficits averaged 3.8% of GDP over the last 50 years.
Debt held by the public rises from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036, well above the previous record of 106% just after World War II.
Outlays are large by historical standards—and growing. They total 23.3% of GDP in 2026, exceeding their 50-year average of 21.2%. After being adjusted for shifts in the timing of certain payments, outlays remain at about that level through 2028 but then grow steadily, boosted by rising spending on mandatory programs and increasing net interest costs. Outlays in 2036 are 24.4% of GDP.
Revenues in 2026 total 17.5% of GDP, surpassing their 50-year average of 17.3%. Revenues stay at or slightly above that 2026 level through 2036, when they total 17.8% of GDP. Over the 2026–2036 period, individual income tax receipts and remittances from the Federal Reserve rise as a percentage of GDP; those increases are offset by declining customs duties receipts as imports, as a percentage of GDP, fall in response to tariffs
Changes in CBO’s Budget Projections Since January 2025
Those amounts include the effects of related changes in the economy and net interest costs
The U.S. Economy [Congressional Budget Office]
Output growth strengthens in calendar year 2026 because of provisions in the 2025 reconciliation act and the rebound in economic activity following the lapse in discretionary appropriations last year. That growth moderates in later years.
The labor market gradually improves in 2026 as output growth strengthens.
Employment growth rebounds as the 2025 reconciliation act’s effects increase overall economic activity. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.6% this year and then declines through 2036.
Inflation
, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, slows from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026. Inflation returns to a rate roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2% in 2030 and stabilizes thereafter.Interest rates
declined in 2025 as the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate by 0.75 percentage points. That rate is expected to continue to decline this year and to stabilize thereafter. The interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes rises gradually through 2027 and remains relatively stable in later years.This week deserves a clear ↗ deterioration marker. Long-term Treasury yields have moved close to the levels we identified as warning thresholds, and the FY2026 deficit has already reached USD 1.97 trillion with September still to come. The important counterweight is that Treasury auctions were exceptionally strong: investors are still willing to buy US government debt at these yields.
| Indicator | Latest | Status | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury | ~4.96%, intraday 4.9915% | 🟠→🔴 | ↑ materially worse |
| 30-year Treasury | ~5.38% | 🔴 | ↑ worse |
| Treasury auction demand | 10Y 2.71×, 30Y 2.61× | 🟢 | ↓ risk improved |
| Net interest / revenue | ~20%+ recent realised rate | 🔴 | → |
| FY deficit / GDP | ~6%+ trajectory | 🔴 | ↑ |
| US dollar | DXY ~99.1; broadly steady Friday | 🟢/🟠 | → |
| Treasuries + USD + equities all falling | No | 🟢 | → |
The biggest deterioration: long Treasury yields
The 10-year Treasury briefly reached 4.9915% on Friday, essentially touching our 5% warning threshold, before settling around 4.96%. Last week we were around 4.78%.
The 30-year has moved from roughly 5.24% to around 5.38%, reaching levels not seen since 2007.
I would therefore change the 30-year indicator from 🟠 to 🔴 RED.
However, an important qualification is that this week's acceleration is not purely fiscal. Oil above $100, stronger inflation data and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase have all pushed yields upward.
So I would describe this as fiscal stress being amplified by an inflation/geopolitical shock, rather than evidence that investors suddenly doubt US solvency.
This is probably the best news in the dashboard.
The September 9 auction of $39 billion of 10-year notes produced:
The bid-to-offer ratio indicates the level of competition among investors for Treasury securities by contrasting the total amount of bids received to the securities actually awarded. [More: Investopedia]
It was unusually strong demand—the auction actually cleared below the prevailing when-issued yield.
The following day's USD 22 billion 30-year auction was also strong, with a 2.61× bid-to-cover ratio, compared with a roughly 2.40 twelve-month average. Dealers were left with just 2.2%, suggesting genuine end-investor demand.
That changes an important interpretation:
That distinction is the principal reason for keeping the overall dashboard AMBER rather than RED.
The fiscal numbers worsened
Treasury's August statement shows the fiscal-year deficit at approximately USD 1.97 trillion with one month remaining. That deficit already exceeds the USD 1.775 trillion deficit for all of FY2025.
CBO's Feb 2026 baseline had projected a USD 1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit, equivalent to 5.8% of GDP, against a 50-year average deficit of 3.8%. [CBO 11 Feb 2026]
The actual FY2026 outcome will therefore exceed that original USD 1.9 trillion forecast. Therefore the deficit/GDP is assessed as 🔴 RED.
Interest expense remains a structural red signal
Through July, net interest was about USD 931 billion, against federal receipts of roughly USD 4.485 trillion—approximately 20.8% of revenue.
August data show debt-interest costs continuing to run substantially above FY2025 levels; Reuters reports year-to-date interest payments were up about 13%.
CBO's longer-term picture remains particularly uncomfortable: debt held by the public is projected at 101% of GDP in 2026, rising to 120% in 2036, with increasing interest expense being a major driver.
So this indicator remains 🔴.
Friday gave us roughly:
The S&P 500 rose about 1% Friday, Nasdaq about 1%, while DXY was approximately 99.1.
That is nowhere near our feared pattern:
Nor are Treasury auctions failing.
This continues to look primarily like inflation/rate/fiscal-supply stress, rather than investors abandoning US assets.
This week's move toward a 5% 10-year yield is increasingly significant for technology valuations.
A 5% risk-free rate makes future earnings less valuable in present-value terms and provides investors with a much more competitive alternative to expensive growth equities. Reuters noted this week that investors are explicitly focusing on the “5% question.”
AI infrastructure adds an interesting complication. Massive capital expenditure requirements increasingly require debt and equity financing. Oracle, for example, is raising roughly USD 40 billion through debt and equity this fiscal year while spending heavily on AI infrastructure.
For companies financing very large datacentre projects, long rates above 5% materially increase the hurdle rate.
Yet underlying technology earnings remain strong: Barclays raised its 2026 S&P 500 target this week, citing particularly strong technology earnings and continuing AI investment.
So I would characterize this as:
The Australian market has also begun feeling the global bond shock.
The ASX 200 fell 2.1% for the week and Australian government bond yields moved above 5%, with inflation concerns centred particularly on higher energy prices.
The AUD was around USD 0.721 late in the week.
That produces mixed consequences for an Australian investor:
The two numbers I'd highlight prominently on your website this week are:
But alongside them I'd put an equally prominent reassuring fact:
That combination captures the situation particularly well. The price America must pay to borrow has become increasingly uncomfortable; its ability to find lenders has not.
That is still 🟠 AMBER, but considerably darker amber than last week.